Where was the Leadership in Afghanistan?
There has been a lot of judgement and speculation heaped on President Biden’s recent decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan, and the uproar is largely driven by the Taliban’s swift takeover of the entire country. There is no doubt that what is happening is horrifying and tragic. It is also incredibly difficult to imagine, after 20 years of American occupation, exactly what many of the Afghan people must be feeling and experiencing right now. Even without violence and uncertainty, rapid change can be, in and of itself, devastating.
So where was the leadership in Afghanistan? There is no doubt the withdrawal could have been handled better, but some version of this unfortunate outcome was always inevitable, barring the United States remaining in Afghanistan for another two, four, or six plus decades. Even then, a victory would in no way be assured. What would a victory even look like? The Taliban being erased or eradicated, or perhaps just giving up? After 20 years, there is no indication that would be the case. With all the intelligence and strength of the United States military, the most powerful military force on the planet, after two decades there is not even a mirage of victory on the desert horizon.
The problem lies in the vision. In the same way that an individual needs to be empowered to choose what’s best for them, so must a nation. From the beginning of the American-led war and occupation, there was never complete buy-in from enough of the Afghan military or the civilian population to ensure success. Sure, there were families who enjoyed the freedom of being able to send their little girls to school for the first time in their nation’s history. And there were those who felt a certain stabilizing presence from the American soldiers. However, by all major accounts, there has never been a compelling sense of purpose, alignment, or vision between the American and Afghan forces.
American military reports have always suggested some Afghan troops were “inept or lazy and… even Taliban sympathizers,” and many civilians seemed like they were not as committed to independence from the Taliban’s oppressive rule as the Americans might have hoped. It’s as if the Afghan soldiers and people did not fully trust the path they were on, or trust that they could hold their own once American forces retreated. It seems as if they never really believed in the vision that the United States had set for them. But that’s how it always works: people, families, teams, and nations, have to set their own vision, or at least be part of the vision-setting process, in order to be truly invested in it.
Just as parents cannot force a vision upon their children and expect those children to fully commit to it, neither can one country force its vision on another. Without full buy-in from all parties involved, there will always be suspicion, distrust, rebellion, and resentment. This is why the United States’ leadership in Afghanistan was always doomed to fail. In order to change one’s self, team, or nation, all parties must be 100% committed. The Taliban is part of the fabric of Afghan culture and history, and there are not enough Afghan people who believe in a future where that is no longer the case. Until this tide turns, no outside visions or solutions can be imposed without a sizable plurality of Afghan people on board.
What the American occupation has given the Afghan people is a taste of what it could look and feel like to not be ruled by fanatical religious psychopaths. After 20 years, there’s an entire generation of citizens who never really experienced what Afghanistan looked and felt like in the harsh religious vacuum to which the Taliban hopes to return the country. After 20 years of girls being allowed to go to school and women being permitted to leave their homes without a male chaperone, it will be very difficult for the Taliban to shove these new attitudes about life and the world back into the bottle. They will most certainly try, and may succeed for a time, but the Afghan people have seen, and cannot unsee, what’s possible, all within the context of the rapidly globalizing world just outside their borders.
The Taliban will also soon be faced with the real work of governing. It’s a lot easier to rally people to a cause when they can coalesce around a common enemy and fight for a fuzzy vision of a better nation. It’s much more difficult to keep those same people in line when it’s time to govern and then fail to deliver. It’s also incredibly challenging to give citizens 20 years of new civil liberties and autonomy and take them away. In some ways, the attempt by the Taliban to take over the leadership in Afghanistan may be exactly what prompts a cultural shift.
The United States and other sympathetic nations should certainly do everything in their power to help the Afghan people now facing the real threat of oppression and even death under a Taliban regime. However, this moment may also mark the beginning of real revolution in Afghanistan… one that starts from the inside out instead of the outside in, which is the only way real progressive change occurs anyway.
